Inside Economy Q3 2026

APSCo Inside Economy Q3

Delivered in partnership with Christian Spence, economist and founder of Economic Analytics, this latest edition of APSCo's Inside the Economy provides an expert analysis of the UK economy in Q3 2026 and what businesses can expect over the coming months.

APSCo members can click below to access the full report.

Some of the key takeaways include:

A more optimistic outlook

The UK economy has performed better than expected, with stronger growth in early 2026 and the economic impact of the Middle East conflict proving more contained than initially feared. While challenges remain, the outlook is more positive than it was three months ago.

Labour market beginning to stabilise

There are early signs that unemployment may have reached its peak, although vacancies remain subdued and employers continue to recruit cautiously. As the labour market steadies, wage growth has continued to soften.

Inflation and interest rates

Inflation has remained more contained than expected, with markets now expecting one further interest rate rise before rates settle at a higher long-term level than many have become accustomed to.

What this means for UK recruitment

Recruitment conditions remain mixed. While a stabilising labour market could make hiring more challenging as fewer people become available for work, lower vacancy levels and softer wage growth should help ease pay pressures. Consumer-facing sectors continue to face the greatest recruitment challenges.